For years and years, the farm system for the Indians/Guardians turned out starting pitchers the way Detroit assembly lines still turn out automobiles.
It isn’t quite fair to say the Guardians’ farm system has gone dry because it produced Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams last year. The three then-rookies were pressed into action because of injuries to Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale. Bibee, Allen and Williams combined to make 65 starts last year. But with them already major-leaguers, there is no starter in Columbus knocking on the Guardians’ door ready to contribute as a rookie.
The 2024 Guardians at 43-23 are first in the American League Central Division with a five-game lead over the Royals heading into their June 14 game with the Blue Jays in Toronto. They are in first place because they have a strong bullpen and because they have been scoring more often than almost anyone expected. They currently rank sixth among MLB’s 30 teams with 332 runs scored in 66 games.
The Guardians could use a power bat in right field, but finding more starting pitching to maintain their hold on the Central Division and to set them up for the postseason should be a priority.
The trade deadline is July 30. The Guardians don’t have to raid another team’s best pitcher, but a middle-of-the-rotation starter such as Luis Severino of the Mets might be a good fit. There are other options, too.
Severino, a 31-year-old right-hander, is 4-2 with a 3.25 ERA over 12 starts. The Mets are 29-37 and likely to be sellers at the trade deadline.
Price, of course, is always the first item the Guardians check when they go shopping. Severino is making $13 million in 2024. He will be a free agent in 2025, so, depending on when a trade is finalized, if they do land Severino, he might be owed less than half his current salary.
Garrett Crochet of the White Sox is only 24. He leads the American League with 14 starts. The 6-foot-6 lefty is 6-5 with a 3.33 ERA. He leads the American League with 103 strikeouts.
The White Sox (18-52) have the worst record in baseball. Crochet will be a free agent in 2027. The White Sox are looking for prospects, perhaps thinking they won’t be contenders before Crochet hits free agency. Crochet’s name has also been linked to the Red Sox in trade rumors.
Things would be cozier for the Guardians now, but their ace, Bieber, underwent Tommy John surgery after only two starts (two six-inning starts with no runs allowed each time). Williams, 3-5 with a 3.59 ERA last year, has yet to pitch for the Guardians this season because of an elbow injury suffered in spring training.
Williams has made three unimpressive rehab starts. He is scheduled to make another start on June 15 for the Triple-A Columbus Clippers. Depending on how that goes, he might be back with the Guardians by the end of the month. He started on June 9, threw 50 pitches and struck out three batters in the first three innings, but was tagged with a home run and double in the fourth inning.
It is unrealistic to expect the Guardians’ current starting five to stay healthy with 3 1/2 months left in the regular season.
McKenzie is pitching with a torn ligament in his right (pitching) elbow, yet somehow has made 13 starts. He is 3-3 with a 4.10 ERA. Carlos Carrasco is 37 years old. He has made 11 starts and is 2-5 with a 5.50 ERA.
Ben Lively, 32, has been the pitching surprise of the season for the Guardians, but he left after five shutout innings against the Marlins on June 8 because he felt “tightness.” He is fine now. Tests found nothing wrong. Lively, 6-2 with a 2.59 ERA, is scheduled to start June 16 against the Blue Jays. But, still, counting on him to make 27 or so starts is a big ask. He started a career-most 19 games for the Reds last year.
The Guardians starters rank 18th in the majors with a 4.23 ERA.
The starters from only the Diamondbacks, Marlins, Giants and Brewers have pitched fewer innings than the 342 1/3 innings hurled by the Guardians’ starters. That is not a good indicator of sustained success for the bullpen over a full season.
